Thibodaux, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS64 KLIX 222333
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
533 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Behind the front that passed Saturday evening, winds will be
  gusty (20-25mph), especially for the southshore and river
  parishes. A Wind Advisory is in effect through the afternoon
  hours for areas near and south of I-10. Low relative humidities
  combined with the gusty winds will produce critical fire
  conditions across our area today and again Monday. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect today and again on Monday. There are
  several wildfires ongoing across the area. Several Parishes have
  put Burn Bans in place.

- A significantly cooler airmass has arrived and will be in place
  through Tuesday. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning,
  with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of
  the I-10/12 corridor. A Freeze Warning may be necessary Tuesday
  morning, given the recent warm spell with some plants coming
  out of their dormancy.

- We will warm up beyond Tuesday back to above normal temperatures
  by the end of the week. We will also see our next rain chances
  Thursday and Friday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Upper trough axis extended from Ohio to near Atlanta this morning
with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
extended from the Dakotas to Texas. Clear skies this morning with
temperatures mid 40s to lower 50s. Windy conditions were in place,
with sustained 20 to 25 mph winds and gusts as high as 35 mph in
some areas.

High pressure will only slowly move eastward, with the center of the
surface high over the area Tuesday morning. Clear skies will
continue across the area. Main concerns will be the potential for
a freeze tonight and tomorrow night, and potential fire weather
concerns tomorrow.

We are pretty much right at the average last freeze date from Baton
Rouge to Gulfport and well short of it (March 12th) at McComb.
Questionable whether we fall below freezing at Gulfport and Baton
Rouge tonight, but more confident it happens tomorrow night.
Current plain is no warning tonight, but we`ll probably need one
tomorrow night. Wind chill values are also rather borderline for
tonight, and little or no wind expected tomorrow night. Evening
shift will monitor observational trends for tonight.

Regarding fire weather concerns, Red Flag Warning in effect today.
We`ll meet the criteria for minimum relative humidity tomorrow (20
to 25 percent), but winds are more borderline, especially western
portions of the area. Coordinated with state forestry people and
will carry another Red Flag Warning tomorrow, considering
antecedent conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

High pressure will be centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida
on Tuesday, with the local area remaining in northwesterly upper
level flow. That will get reinforced Thursday, as a strong
shortwave moves through the Ohio River Valley. This pushes another
cold front through the area Thursday, with a chance of rain.
Again, this isn`t expected to be a heavy rainfall event, with
areas that do receive rain likely receiving less than one half
inch. The area that needs rain most, the northwest corner of the
area, has the least chance of actually getting any. Instability
looks to be rather meager, so not extremely concerned about severe
weather at this point.

Tuesday will still be a bit on the cool side, but beyond that
point, we`ll be back to above normal temperatures for the second
half of the week through next weekend. Even the cooler solution of
the GFS for Thursday/Friday only knocks temperatures back to
around normal for a couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. The only
aviation concerns will be wind related, with gusts of 15-20 knots
through the period at most terminals. Some potential for LLWS
overnight where surface winds drop below 10 knots but not likely
enough to include in coded TAFs. Winds will again be on the gusty
side during the daytime hours Monday, with gusts as high as 25
knots possible as early as 15-16z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Allowed the Gale Warning to expire. There could be a few gusts
exceeding 35 knots this afternoon over the outer waters, but don`t
expect them to be frequent. Did extend the Small Craft Advisory
through the daytime hours tomorrow, and will need some sort of
headlines beyond that point through tomorrow night. Looks like
Tuesday may be the only day where no headlines are necessary
during this forecast period. Winds likely to increase again
Wednesday and Thursday with the next cold front approaching the
waters.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Dense Smoke Advisory until 1 AM CST Monday for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW